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Long Live the Loner
Why team players are bad news for video poker
by Bob Dancer

Video poker teams do exist, in Las Vegas and elsewhere. But since video poker is an individual rather than a team activity, it's not immediately obvious how and why they exist. This article examines many aspects related to "teamsmanship," including how teams, in general, are detrimental to the average player.

To begin, let's use a simplified example to show how team play can be beneficial to its members. Let's say there’s a dollar 9/6 Jacks or Better machine on which the royal flush always pays $8,000, but there’s only one machine that pays this way. "Break even" on such a machine, assuming no slot club, is right around $5,000, meaning that, on average, a player will lose about $5,000 between royals. The casino has no advantage over knowledgeable players when the royal is at $5,000, and the player has no advantage either. But now we have a royal of $8,000. That's $3,000 above the break even point, and assuming fast players will hit a royal every 60 hours of play on average, this comes out to a $50-per-hour opportunity. ($3,000 profit / 60 hours = $50 / hour).

At $50 per hour, many players would like to play this machine. (I know I would! Isn't $50 per hour worth your time?) If you could get a seat on this machine, you'd like to arrange it so you can get it again later. If you can play eight hours a day, you might like it best if you could have it between noon and 8 PM. (while John has it between 8 PM and 4 AM, and Mary has it between 4 AM and noon). Perhaps four hours or 12 hours of play fits your schedule better, but you get the idea. One purpose of a team is to guarantee seats. As long as John, Mary, and you always show up at your appointed times, the "team" can play the machine forever, and perpetuate that $50-per-hour opportunity.

This might be good for you in the short run, but it's bad for the video poker-playing community in general, and it's bad for the casinos. For the community as a whole, it's bad for opportunities to be monopolized by a few players because those of us who play want good games. But why should casinos care which players are playing, as long as the machine is getting played?

There are a lot of reasons and some of them are discussed in this month's "Dancer's Answers." One big reason, however, is that in order for casinos to offer "good" games, recreational (i.e., not professional) players must get their turn to play. Team members are generally more skilled than recreational players. If the good players trade off among themselves, then the lesser players won't get seats and the casinos will have to either bar good players or eliminate the competitive machines just to survive. You can sit back and hope that casinos will stand for a $1,000-per-day loss on a machine day in and day out, but realistically, that's not going to happen.

Let's go back to our example. We'll assume that John, Mary and you are equally good players and are trusted completely by each other. (These are two huge assumptions; it rarely happens in the real world.) Now it might make sense to share results. After one week, Mary might be down $2,000, John up $14,000, and you down $3,000. (Guess who hit two royals that week!). If you were all partners, then the $9,000 net profit would be shared by each of you. And each of you would need a smaller bankroll as one-third of a threesome than you would as an individual. This is another benefit of teams. The amount of bankroll you need is largely determined by how much you can lose during the losing streaks. The reason you need less with three of you is that it is very unlikely that all three of you will be in losing streaks at the same time.

Unfortunately, it's not always so straightforward. Often in team play, the decreased bankroll risk is made up for by the increased risk of dishonesty. Sharing results is easy to justify when you were the big loser. But what if you won this week, while John claimed he lost $9,000 and Mary claimed she lost $4,000. Are you going to believe them? Their losses are certainly possible, but it's also possible that John lost only $2,000 and is claiming more for his own gain. Same with Mary. Blindly believing that everyone is honest is extremely naïve. But you must trust each other for the team to work. This single problem has been the major downfall of teams (or other types of collusion) in the past. After all, everyone has an incentive to cheat! There's one cynic I know who claims that he trusts only his wife. Not that she's unfailingly honest. But he knows that if she really wants to stick it to him, there are easier ways for her to do it.

Now let's assume that neither John nor Mary have the bankroll to play dollar 9/6 Jacks or Better with an $8,000 royal—but you do, and then some. Again assuming they are competent and honest, it would make a lot of sense for all three of you if you paid them $20 per hour to gamble with your money. You would make $50 on average for each of your hours and $30 on average for each of theirs. It makes a lot of sense, if you can trust them. And perhaps they deserve trust. But how can you ever be sure? This sort of doubt can drive you crazy.

In the real world, this $8,000 royal might be linked to eight machines. When any one of the machines hits the royal, it would reset to $4,000 and start to build again. Even in this case, all of the reasons listed above for having a team would still be valid. However, now the royal isn't guaranteed to the team unless you hold all eight seats, and it would be a very unusual team that could place that number of competent players on one play. But even if one group did hold all the seats, it wouldn't guarantee them a profit. Sometimes royals are elusive, and it could easily cost $20,000 to hit the $8,000 royal.

And this particular game is only one of dozens that offer progressives. There are several different pay schedules for Jacks or Better, Bonus Poker, Double Bonus Poker, Double Double Bonus Poker, Deuces Wild, Joker Wild, etc. You can find progressives for quarters, dollars, five dollars, and other denominations as well. Most progressives only have one meter (for the royal flush) but some have additional meters—perhaps for four Aces or four Deuces. Every casino has its own slot club idiosyncrasies.

Although figuring all this out takes considerable time and effort, once it's done, the information is easily shared. All teams have "strike numbers" for each relevant progressive in town. If a particular machine is above $7,000 at Treasure Island, it's a play. If another type of machine at MGM is above $28,000, it's a play. At New York-New York, there might be three different progressives, each with its own strike number.

It doesn't have to be a progressive to attract teams. Sometimes it's a promotion. You might get a scratch card for every four of a kind, and this might be worth $30 per hour to a player. Throwing a lot of good players at a $30-an-hour game while only paying them $15 makes a lot of financial sense—but only for those involved. For the community as a whole? It eliminates good games. It gives fewer players a chance to win. It creates resentments when the same players win all of the time.

Scouting for progressives is a time-consuming and tedious task, but very important. Depending on the stakes that the team plays for, there might be two dozen different casinos in Las Vegas with one or more progressives that are sometimes playable. Someone has to check these machines regularly. Sometimes daily. Sometimes several times a day. Sometimes weekly or less often. And at least monthly, someone has to check the rest of the casinos in Las Vegas to see if new progressives or good promotions have been added.

Scouting is an area where teams have an advantage. Individual players who play progressives must scout, too. But scouting for an individual takes just as much time as scouting for a six-person team. And the team can spread the scouting out. John can take the south end of the Strip, Mary can take Boulder Highway, Pete can take the Northwest. Since they are all connected via cell phone, whenever someone finds a suitable play, team members can move in fast. One of the reasons Strictly Slots publishes casino promotion information is to level the playing field. In the past, teams would learn this information and pass it among themselves. Now, with the knowledge more widely known, some of the benefit of being on a team has been reduced.

If you are playing on a progressive, then go for a meal and return to find that you can't get back in because a team is monopolizing all of the seats, I recommend that you complain to casino management. They may or may not do anything this time, but if they get enough complaints against teams, eventually they will take actions that benefit the player community as a whole.

In this month's "Dancer's Answers," I discuss a related topic: Why casinos dislike teams. That's it for this month. Until next time, go out and hit a royal flush.