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video poker
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Long
Live the Loner
Why
team players are bad news for video poker
by
Bob Dancer
Video
poker teams do exist, in Las Vegas and elsewhere. But since video
poker is an individual rather than a team activity, it's not immediately
obvious how and why they exist. This article examines many aspects
related to "teamsmanship," including how teams, in general,
are detrimental to the average player.
To begin, let's use a simplified example to show how team play
can be beneficial to its members. Let's say theres a dollar
9/6 Jacks or Better machine on which the royal flush always pays
$8,000, but theres only one machine that pays this way.
"Break even" on such a machine, assuming no slot club,
is right around $5,000, meaning that, on average, a player will
lose about $5,000 between royals. The casino has no advantage
over knowledgeable players when the royal is at $5,000, and the
player has no advantage either. But now we have a royal of $8,000.
That's $3,000 above the break even point, and assuming fast players
will hit a royal every 60 hours of play on average, this comes
out to a $50-per-hour opportunity. ($3,000 profit / 60 hours =
$50 / hour).
At $50 per hour, many players would like to play this machine.
(I know I would! Isn't $50 per hour worth your time?) If you could
get a seat on this machine, you'd like to arrange it so you can
get it again later. If you can play eight hours a day, you might
like it best if you could have it between noon and 8 PM. (while
John has it between 8 PM and 4 AM, and Mary has it between 4 AM
and noon). Perhaps four hours or 12 hours of play fits your schedule
better, but you get the idea. One purpose of a team is to guarantee
seats. As long as John, Mary, and you always show up at your appointed
times, the "team" can play the machine forever, and
perpetuate that $50-per-hour opportunity.
This
might be good for you in the short run, but it's bad for the video
poker-playing community in general, and it's bad for the casinos.
For the community as a whole, it's bad for opportunities to be
monopolized by a few players because those of us who play want
good games. But why should casinos care which players are playing,
as long as the machine is getting played?
There are a lot of reasons and some of them are discussed in this
month's "Dancer's Answers." One big reason, however,
is that in order for casinos to offer "good" games,
recreational (i.e., not professional) players must get their turn
to play. Team members are generally more skilled than recreational
players. If the good players trade off among themselves, then
the lesser players won't get seats and the casinos will have to
either bar good players or eliminate the competitive machines
just to survive. You can sit back and hope that casinos will stand
for a $1,000-per-day loss on a machine day in and day out, but
realistically, that's not going to happen.
Let's go back to our example. We'll assume that John, Mary and
you are equally good players and are trusted completely by each
other. (These are two huge assumptions; it rarely happens in the
real world.) Now it might make sense to share results. After one
week, Mary might be down $2,000, John up $14,000, and you down
$3,000. (Guess who hit two royals that week!). If you were all
partners, then the $9,000 net profit would be shared by each of
you. And each of you would need a smaller bankroll as one-third
of a threesome than you would as an individual. This is another
benefit of teams. The amount of bankroll you need is largely determined
by how much you can lose during the losing streaks. The reason
you need less with three of you is that it is very unlikely that
all three of you will be in losing streaks at the same time.
Unfortunately, it's not always so straightforward. Often in team
play, the decreased bankroll risk is made up for by the increased
risk of dishonesty. Sharing results is easy to justify when you
were the big loser. But what if you won this week, while John
claimed he lost $9,000 and Mary claimed she lost $4,000. Are you
going to believe them? Their losses are certainly possible, but
it's also possible that John lost only $2,000 and is claiming
more for his own gain. Same with Mary. Blindly believing that
everyone is honest is extremely naïve. But you must trust
each other for the team to work. This single problem has been
the major downfall of teams (or other types of collusion) in the
past. After all, everyone has an incentive to cheat! There's one
cynic I know who claims that he trusts only his wife. Not that
she's unfailingly honest. But he knows that if she really wants
to stick it to him, there are easier ways for her to do it.
Now let's assume that neither John nor Mary have the bankroll
to play dollar 9/6 Jacks or Better with an $8,000 royalbut
you do, and then some. Again assuming they are competent and honest,
it would make a lot of sense for all three of you if you paid
them $20 per hour to gamble with your money. You would make $50
on average for each of your hours and $30 on average for each
of theirs. It makes a lot of sense, if you can trust them. And
perhaps they deserve trust. But how can you ever be sure? This
sort of doubt can drive you crazy.
In the real world, this $8,000 royal might be linked to eight
machines. When any one of the machines hits the royal, it would
reset to $4,000 and start to build again. Even in this case, all
of the reasons listed above for having a team would still be valid.
However, now the royal isn't guaranteed to the team unless you
hold all eight seats, and it would be a very unusual team that
could place that number of competent players on one play. But
even if one group did hold all the seats, it wouldn't guarantee
them a profit. Sometimes royals are elusive, and it could easily
cost $20,000 to hit the $8,000 royal.
And this particular game is only one of dozens that offer progressives.
There are several different pay schedules for Jacks or Better,
Bonus Poker, Double Bonus Poker, Double Double Bonus Poker, Deuces
Wild, Joker Wild, etc. You can find progressives for quarters,
dollars, five dollars, and other denominations as well. Most progressives
only have one meter (for the royal flush) but some have additional
metersperhaps for four Aces or four Deuces. Every casino
has its own slot club idiosyncrasies.
Although figuring all this out takes considerable time and effort,
once it's done, the information is easily shared. All teams have
"strike numbers" for each relevant progressive in town.
If a particular machine is above $7,000 at Treasure Island, it's
a play. If another type of machine at MGM is above $28,000, it's
a play. At New York-New York, there might be three different progressives,
each with its own strike number.
It doesn't have to be a progressive to attract teams. Sometimes
it's a promotion. You might get a scratch card for every four
of a kind, and this might be worth $30 per hour to a player. Throwing
a lot of good players at a $30-an-hour game while only paying
them $15 makes a lot of financial sensebut only for those
involved. For the community as a whole? It eliminates good games.
It gives fewer players a chance to win. It creates resentments
when the same players win all of the time.
Scouting for progressives is a time-consuming and tedious task,
but very important. Depending on the stakes that the team plays
for, there might be two dozen different casinos in Las Vegas with
one or more progressives that are sometimes playable. Someone
has to check these machines regularly. Sometimes daily. Sometimes
several times a day. Sometimes weekly or less often. And at least
monthly, someone has to check the rest of the casinos in Las Vegas
to see if new progressives or good promotions have been added.
Scouting is an area where teams have an advantage. Individual
players who play progressives must scout, too. But scouting for
an individual takes just as much time as scouting for a six-person
team. And the team can spread the scouting out. John can take
the south end of the Strip, Mary can take Boulder Highway, Pete
can take the Northwest. Since they are all connected via cell
phone, whenever someone finds a suitable play, team members can
move in fast. One of the reasons Strictly Slots publishes casino
promotion information is to level the playing field. In the past,
teams would learn this information and pass it among themselves.
Now, with the knowledge more widely known, some of the benefit
of being on a team has been reduced.
If you are playing on a progressive, then go for a meal and return
to find that you can't get back in because a team is monopolizing
all of the seats, I recommend that you complain to casino management.
They may or may not do anything this time, but if they get enough
complaints against teams, eventually they will take actions that
benefit the player community as a whole.
In this month's "Dancer's Answers," I discuss a related
topic: Why casinos dislike teams. That's it for this month. Until
next time, go out and hit a royal flush.
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