Roulette Continued

Outside Bets

Column

A bet made on one of the columns of numbers on the layout. Make the bet by placing your chip(s) at the bottom of the column in the area that says 2 to 1 (opposite end of the wheel). The winning payoff is 2 to 1.

Dozens

A bet made on either the first dozen of numbers (from 1 to 12), the second dozen (from 13 to 24), or third dozen (from 25 to 36). These bets are located below the three columns of numbers (labeled 1st, 2nd, and 3rd 12). The winning payoff is 2 to 1.

Red/Black

A bet made in the hopes that the winning number will be red or black. Make the bet by placing your chip(s) on either red or black (located on the bottom center of the layout). The winning payoff is 1 to 1.

Odd/Even

A bet made in the hopes that the winning number will be either odd or even. Make the bet by placing your chip(s) on either odd or even (located adjacent to the red/black betting area). The winning payoff is 1 to 1.

High/Low

A bet made in the hopes that the winning number will be either low (1 through 18) or high (19 through 36). Make the bet by placing your chip(s) on either low or high (bottom of the layout adjacent to odd and even). The winning payoff is 1 to 1.

As you see, different roulette bets have different winning payoffs. Occasionally, but not often, a dealer may miscalculate your payoff. An easy way to calculate if you are being paid off properly is to mentally divide 36 by the number of roulette numbers you have covered by your bet and subtract 1. The answer is the payoff. For example, if you make a split bet, the correct payoff is 36 divided by 2 equals 18. Subtract 1 gives 17, which is the correct payoff for this bet. A line bet covers six numbers. The correct payoff is 36 divided by 6 equals 6. Subtract one gives a 5 to 1 payoff. This technique for figuring the winning payoffs works for all roulette bets except the five number bet.

Casino’s Edge

The casinos have the upper hand in roulette. They make their money not when a roulette player loses a bet, but rather, when they win. How can this be? They simply short-change players every time they win. It is done like this.

The probability of winning a single number bet is 1 in 38. Another way of saying this is that the odds of winning are 37 to 1. The latter means that on every spin the roulette ball has just as much chance to drop into one of the 37 losing numbers as it does the single winning number. Hence the odds are 37 to 1 against winning the bet.

If you get lucky and win, what does the casino pay you? Not 37 to 1. Instead, they pay at 35 to 1 odds (two less than the true odds). This means that if you bet a $1 chip on a number and it wins, you get $35 (not $37) in winnings. Essentially, the casino keeps $2 of your winnings, a sort of hidden tax because most players don’t realize they have been shortchanged. In percentage terms, the casino keeps $2 out of every $38 worth of bets made by players, which equals a casino edge of 5.26%.

You can calculate the casino’s edge for any roulette bet by using this simple equation developed by Chris Pawlicki, host of www.roulette.casino.com, a great Internet site for roulette players:

Actual payoff minus correct payoff times probability of number winning.

For example, using the above equation for a straight up bet:

35/1 - 37/1 times 1/38 times 100 (convert to percent) = -5.26% (a negative player’s edge).

You can use the above equation to calculate the casino edge for any roulette bet. Table 1 summarizes the results. Not surprisingly, the casino’s edge on all roulette bets is 5.26%. The five number bet on 0, 00, 1, 2, and 3 has the highest casino edge of 7.89%, and it should be avoided.

Notice from the data in Table 1 that the probability of winning different roulette bets is not the same. You are more likely to win betting on a red number on any spin than, say, betting on number 7. The reason, of course, is that there are a lot more red numbers on the wheel (18 of them to be exact). However, winning the easy-to-hit red number pays only 1 to 1, whereas hitting the more difficult number 7 pays a lot more–35 to 1. When you factor together the probability of a number hitting with its payoff, you arrive at a casino edge of 5.26% for all bets except the five number bet on 0, 00, 1, 2, and 3.

In practice, you’ll have less fluctuations to your bankroll betting on red than you would betting straight up on number 7. But in the end, after many playing sessions, the casino’s edge will take its toll and you will lose 5.26% of all the money you bet.

How to Win More

You can reduce the casino’s edge in roulette by half, or even a third. Here’s how.

Casinos in Atlantic City have a surrender rule, which means if you wager on any even money payoff bet, and the ball lands in 0 or 00, you lose only half your bet (not the entire bet). By being able to salvage half of your bet, the casino’s edge is reduced to a more respectable 2.63% on the even money outside bets. That’s a 50% reduction in the normal casino edge.

Some casinos also offer a single 0 roulette game. The wheel consists of the numbers 1 through 36 and a single 0 (the double 0 is eliminated). The casino’s edge on all bets in this game is reduced from 5.26% (American double 0 game) to 2.7%. That’s a 49% reduction in the casino’s edge compared to the American double 0 game. Happily, the five number bet, which is the worst bet on the American double 0 game, does not exist on the single 0 wheel.

The standard roulette game in European casinos has a single 0. They also have the en prison rule. When the single 0 hits, all even-money payoff bets do not automatically lose. The bet is "imprisoned" and returned to the bettor if it wins on the next spin. If it loses on the next spin, it’s lost. This rule reduces the casino’s edge on the even money outside wagers from 2.7% to only 1.35%, a 50% reduction. It’s one reason why roulette is much more popular overseas.

Before you buy that plane ticket to Europe, you should also know that roulette rules and conduct are much different in European casinos. The game is more formal, there are two layouts per wheel rather than one, regular casino chips are used to bet with (not different colored chips), and the bets on the layout are in French (e.g. A Cheval is a Split bet). Players often call out their bets for the dealer, and the play is much slower (due to the use of a rake to remove losing chips and the practice of the dealer precisely counting the winning chips in front of him before giving them to the player). Plus, there are special bets that you don’t find on the American game (like the "Neighbour bet," which is a five chip bet on any number on the wheel and the two adjacent numbers). You can get a glimpse of how the European game is played by stopping at the Paris Casino in Las Vegas and checking out their European roulette game.

Table 2 summarizes the casino’s edge for the different types of roulette games. Smart players will seek out the games with the lowest casino edge. However, many casinos that offer single 0 wheels do so with higher minimum bets. If you can’t afford the higher minimums, don’t play roulette on these games; the increase in the minimum bet requirements will more than offset the decease in the casino edge, resulting in an overall increase in your cost to play.

You can easily do a quick calculation to determine your cost per bet. Just multiply the amount of your bet times the casino edge. For example, your cost for making a $5 bet on a double 0 game is 26 cents ($5 times 5.26%). At a $10 minimum single 0 game, your cost is the same ($10 times 2.63% = 26 cents). However, at a $25 minimum bet single 0 game, your cost is 2.5 times more ($25 times 2.63% = 66 cents).

Another factor to consider when determining your cost to play is the number of spins per hour. Since the casinos have the edge in roulette on each spin, the more spins per hour, the more it will cost you to play. It’s better, therefore, to play roulette at full tables where the action is slower.

Betting Systems

There have been countless betting systems developed and promoted for beating roulette. In fact, many of these systems have been around for hundreds of years and include the Martingale, d’Alembert, Fibonacci, Labouchere, and others. The most dangerous is the Martingale progressive betting system that has you doubling your bet following a loss. Even though you win frequently using this system, there will come a session when your bets increase and approach the table maximum betting limits. In essence, you will be betting the majority of your bankroll to win a single unit. In the long run, it’s a loser for the player.

The bottom line is that there is no betting system that will overcome the casino edge in roulette. If you want to use one, it’s OK, but just make sure you set loss limits and you know going in that it will not alter the casino’s edge one iota. However, if you still believe that your betting system works, my friend and fellow Casino Player magazine writer Michael Shackleford (Wizard of Odds) will mathematically analyze it for a fee. If it shows a profit over millions of bets, Michael will not only refund your fee but will give you full credit on his popular website for disproving every respectable book on probability ever written. I’m sure you’ll also be inducted into the "Gamblers Hall of Fame" to boot.

Roulette Misconceptions

If a red number wins on 10 consecutive spins, most roulette players mistakenly believe that a black number is "due" to win. This is not so. Each roulette spin is an independent event and the roulette ball doesn’t know and doesn’t care which numbers won on previous spins. On an evenly balanced, unbiased wheel, red or black has the same chance of winning, even after 10 reds in a row.

Many roulette players mistakenly believe that a bet on red/black is a 50/50 proposition because there are 18 red numbers and 18 black numbers on the wheel. Although the latter is true, what players forget is that the wheel also contains the green 0 and 00 numbers. When the roulette ball lands in either of these pockets, all bets on red and black lose (this is why the 0 and 00 are sometimes referred to as "house numbers"). This means on any spin you have 18 ways to win on red and 20 ways to lose. In a cycle of 38 spins, you’d win $18 and lose $20, for a net loss of $2. If you divide the $2 loss by the $38 bet, you arrive at a casino edge of–you guessed it–5.26%.

Another misconception is the belief that if you make several "combination bets," like betting $1 on number 17 (35 to 1 payoff), $2 on first dozen (2 to 1 payoff) and $5 on black (1 to 1 payoff), that you will do better than making a single bet. Guess what? The expected result of combination bets equals the sum of the expected results for the individual bets. In other words, you can’t combine a group of "bad" bets into a single "good" bet.

Predictive Methods

As long as the roulette numbers are winning exactly as expected by random chance, the casino will win money and the players will lose money. However, if some numbers hit more frequently than expected, a bias may exist which players can exploit.

Biases can occur due to physical defects in the wheel (loose or worn frets, for example) or due to a dealer signature. The latter sometimes occurs when a veteran dealer spins the ball with the same velocity in a predictable way. Some experts believe that it’s possible to find a dealer bias by tracking and analyzing the results of many spins to determine if, consciously or unconsciously, the dealer rhythm causes the ball to land in certain sections of the wheel more than probability would dictate. By exploiting this bias, it’s possible to turn the tables on the casino and gain the advantage.

In order to be absolutely certain that the bias is real, you would have to record the results of thousands of spins and then analyze them to determine if any number or group of numbers around the wheel are winning more frequently than by pure chance. Most roulette players don’t have the time or patience to do this. However, there’s nothing wrong with checking the last 20 or so winning numbers–they’re posted on the electronic scoreboards at most roulette tables–for repeating numbers. If you spot one where a number or group of adjacent wheel numbers have won more than twice, it doesn’t hurt to bet them. You won’t be altering the normal casino edge against you, and if a true bias does exist, you’ll be able to capitalize on it. ´

Henry Tamburin is the author of six best-selling books, including Henry Tamburin on Casino Gambling–The Best of The Best. For a free copy of Tamburin’s gaming catalog call 1-888-353-3234 or visit his website at www.smartgaming.com.