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Feature Dan Gordon The
6 Big Myths of Sport Betting (continued) Big
Myth #3 NFL analysts in the media have quick answers to all these questions. They have a listing of every player and his record at their fingertips. They have staff-written copy on hand to explain all types of game strategies. They have formidable arrays of statistics to cover any situation. Because of the media, pro football is a sport of virtually no hidden information. However, it’s one thing to describe an event that’s already over. It is something else entirely to try to predict that which has yet to occur. When the media try to predict game results, they tend to do poorly. To give just a few examples from New York City, where I live, every Friday eleven New York Post writers make predictions on NFL games against the spread. I’ve never seen one of these handicappers consistently pick the 52.4% winners needed to beat the 11-to-10 odds sports bettors must give. In fact, virtually every year for the past 20 years the consensus in the Post has finished below 50 percent. One of the Post handicappers often mentions trends in his handicapping analysis—how teams do on grass or turf, as favorites or underdogs, etc. But trends are mostly useless these days since teams change so quickly due to free agency. What does it matter if a team is 12-and-4 on road turf over the last five years if only three of its players have been there that long? On the radio, WFAN commentators also make predictions every Friday. But they too have seldom picked the 52.4 percent winners needed to beat the 11-to-10. To cover this, they often talk about their records in relation to the .500 mark. The vig seems not to exist in the world of WFAN. And on television, ESPN’s Hank Goldberg has beaten the 11-to-10 in only one of the seven years he’s been there. From personal experience, I’ve learned that most TV producers and newspaper editors view sports handicapping as entertainment rather than serious journalism. That’s why you, as a serious handicapper, should take all media predictions with a big grain of salt. Big
Myth #4 The first way to protect yourself from one who is not is to rule out anyone who claims to win 75 or 80 percent against the point spread. Just remember this: Anyone who reasonably expected to win 80 of his next 100 bets could turn $1,000 into $15 billion by proper proportional betting—all in one season! A realistic long-term win percentage for a skilled handicapper will be in the 55–60 percent range. I know of no service that has done better than about 60 percent over a number of seasons. And those that consistently reach 60 percent are very few. Another warning sign of a rip-off tout is multiple services within one service. Touts create multiple services so that they can always truthfully claim to have won. For example, a tout may operate an early-week newsletter giving selections on each game along with a weekend phone service giving selections based on the "latest inside information." Then the tout will switch sides on a game because of "new" information. This way, the tout can always truthfully advertise that his service, meaning one of his services, had the winner of the game. Other sports services give out selections on 900 numbers with a charge-per-call. They pad the bill by offering just one selection and telling you to call back in ten minutes for another pick—and another charge. Other services advertise "lock games," meaning games that can’t lose. How they can sell such games is beyond me. Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing against the spread can be infinitesimally small. In the NFL, a game will often be turned by a single play or penalty call. The best anyone can do in handicapping is come up with a side that has a slightly better than 60 percent chance of covering the spread. This still means that almost four times in ten the game will lose—which makes any talk of a lock complete nonsense. Some of the more laughable tout ads are those that are printed a month or more ahead of time. These are often found in NFL betting schedules. The ads will claim that this service had winners in games that couldn’t have been played when the ads were written! In summary, the only touts you should consider using are those who talk about the long haul and realistic win percentages.
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