Betting the Baskets:
WHY GAMBLING ON THE NBA IS NO FREE THROW
by Nolan Dalla
Betting on a pro basketball game can be like a two-and-a-half
hour coin flip. First it’s heads then it’s tails;
heads, tails, heads, tails, heads, tails. In most games there
are multiple lead changes, teams go on scoring streaks, then
the closing minute usually turns into a foul circus, with
the ultimate point spread winner determined by a couple of
foul shots. Indeed, betting on NBA games presents some very
unique challenges for sports gamblers.
There are many reasons why beating the NBA is no free throw.
More Games/Longer Season. The NBA season consists of 82 games,
not including preseason and playoffs, which can add another
30 games per team. This means that “significant”
regular season games are exceptionally rare. Fact is, “must
win” games are infrequent. Contrast this with college
and pro football where all games are crucial to national rankings
and postseason prospects. Even college basketball features
many significant regular season games, since the season is
much shorter than the NBA. The bottom line is: Picking the
team that will be motivated to win on any given night is very
tough to predict.
Urban Influences. The NBA is an urban game. Players are forced
to live in hotel rooms half the season, often for extended
periods. Players on the road visit bars and nightclubs and
some find it difficult to resist temptations. Alcohol and
women can certainly affect athletic performance. This might
not be a politically correct thing to say, but ignoring the
influence of the NBA’s nightlife on wins and losses is
a big mistake.
No Key Numbers. Unlike football, which has key numbers for
field goals (3) and touchdowns (7), basketball scoring consists
of 1, 2 or 3 points. Team totals usually fall into the 90s,
which means one “made” basket represents a tiny
fraction of the team’s final score. In essence, one basket
is no more important than any other is, whereas a touchdown
in football can have a momentous impact on the final outcome.
A spread of 2 as opposed to 4 in football is a huge difference.
But in basketball, the difference between 2 and 4 is almost
meaningless.
Forecasting Shooting Percentages Is Impossible. The outcome
of a basketball game often depends on which team’s players
shoot better. This is impossible to predict. Inferior teams
with a “hot hand” can upset superior teams. The
introduction of the three-point line 20 years ago only adds
to the unpredictability of NBA scoring and point spread handicapping.
Inconsistent Officiating. The
most important people on the basketball court are not players
or coaches. They are referees. A few ill-timed whistles can
completely turn around the momentum of a game and determine
the outcome. Personal fouls can be called on just about every
play, which means games (and the outcomes of wagers) are often
determined by officials. If you pride yourself on good handicapping,
this is not good.
Despite many challenges that make NBA games tough to predict,
there are ways to make a profit. I recommend three areas of
focus for NBA bettors.
Concentrate on Trends and Angles. This is especially true
with totals betting. Sports betting guides and Internet websites
post many trends and angles, which are useful in handicapping.
For instance, one of the most profitable angles in recent
years (before it was discovered and widely reported) was to
bet under the total when one team was coming off a road game
at either Utah or Denver. Apparently, it was difficult for
many teams to adjust to the altitude change in the next game,
and those games were low-scoring affairs. Oddsmakers eventually
caught on, and the edge vanished. But there are others out
there that can be profitable.
Bet Halftimes (also called Second Halves). Sixty percent of
all my NBA bets are halftime wagers. I like seeing an entire
half of basketball and then being able to decide which team
is dominating inside, or which team is getting lots of calls
from the officials and is (falsely) ahead because of free
throws, or which team might have a key player in foul trouble.
Second halves do not necessarily mirror the first half, but
it’s clearly advantageous to have seen the two teams
play a half of basketball, rather than blindly speculating
on what might happen during the pregame warm-ups.
Bet Moneylines (especially dogs). This is the most important
advice in this column. Moneyline odds are often inflated and
provide outstanding value. Consider last year’s NBA finals
when the Detroit Pistons were a huge moneyline underdog to
the always-overhyped Los Angeles Lakers. Best of all, moneyline
prices are adjusted in “series” bets, so you have
options to hedge later and lock up a profit. Furthermore I
find it wise to just play a solid underdog to win the game
outright, getting a nice inflated bonus price, rather than
placing an even-money bet with the points. Concentrate on
the so-called live dogs, teams you think are capable of wining
the game outright. Bet them on the moneyline.
NBA Betting Tips
Bet against teams that shot 10 percent higher than their season
average in the previous game, especially in games played the
following night. We are taking advantage of teams that played
over their heads in the last game and now have to come into
a new environment and try and recapture the momentum. This
rarely happens. Teams rarely shoot 50 percent and above in
back-to-back games.
Bet against teams that played their starters 40-plus minutes
in previous game, especially in games played the following
night. The reasoning behind this betting tip is pretty obvious.
Starters played more minutes than usual in the previous game
and get fatigued when they play the next night. Most box scores
list “minutes played” for all players.
In halftime betting, look for games that are blowouts in first
half to go over in second half. What happens is, both defenses
get lazy in these situations, where one team is ahead by double
digits. The losing team often picks up the pace to try and
get back in the game and the winning team plays in a more
relaxed manner, usually leading to more points.
Bet against teams where an injured player is returning to
the starting lineup after a long layoff, now back for the
first game. Since there are only five players on the court,
any single player who is not “in synch” with his
teammates creates a lack of chemistry. Some teams and players
have natural chemistry between them. Others do not. Any player
who has been inactive with the team in recent games can create
defensive breakdowns and offensive inconsistency. Interestingly
enough, the bigger the star returning, the better this angle
works, since the betting public frequently overreacts to the
return of the star player.
Nolan Dalla has been one of gambling’s premier writers
for more than a decade. He has written extensively for Casino
Player, Card Player, and Poker Digest. Dalla lives in Las
Vegas.
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