Fact or Fiction?
Twenty years after the introduction
of the “virtual reel” slot machine, the myths about
how slots operate continue
by Frank Legato
For most of the 20th century, the slot machine was pretty
much the same. Three reels spun around, prompted first by
springs loaded in a handle and later by electrical switches.
Where those reels landed when stopped by a separate mechanism
was largely a function of gravity.
Since the period of time the reels spun for and the number
of symbols on each reel remained constant, odds and probabilities
could be calculated by mapping the reel symbols, and wagering
systems could be developed to give math-savvy players an advantage.
It all changed in 1984 when Inge Telnaus was issued a U.S.
patent for a computerized method of determining the results
of a slot machine. Ever since this system was implemented,
players have mistrusted the machine. The result has been a
remarkable set of myths about how this computer selects a
winning result, and how a player can have the best chance
of beating the odds and walking away a winner.
People dislike trusting anything to computer technology, including
the notion that the result a computer generates is truly random.
So the myths have persisted, ranging from logical but wrong
to truly ridiculous. Now it’s time for Casino Player
to publish its periodic rundown of the most popular notions
about slot machines that are actually fiction, and to give
you the real facts.
But first, one should know what Telnaus actually invented
with his computerized slot system, which is the basis on which
all modern slot machines are designed. The system—the
patent was soon purchased by then-young IGT, which held it
until it expired in 2004—became commonly known as the
“virtual reel” system, because with it, slot results
were no longer dependent on the movement of the physical reels.
Instead, each reel result was assigned a number in a computer
program. The low-paying or nonpaying results were each assigned
many numbers, the high jackpot symbols just a few or one.
These numbers were all burned into a game chip, with a random
number generator device (RNG) that would cycle through all
the numbers constantly, at lightning speed. When the handle
was pulled or the spin button pushed, the device would generate
one number in the program at random.
By manipulating the sets of numbers assigned to each symbol
or reel result in the program, manufacturers were able to
calculate theoretical payback percentages based on a computer
simulation of millions of spins. However, a math wizard could
no longer calculate the odds by counting the symbols and looking
at the paytable, because the physical reels were now meaningless.
The RNG was selecting the outcome, and signaling a computerized
stepper motor where to stop the physical reels. The reels
themselves now functioned to display the result chosen at
random by the RNG.
We write more about the RNG and the virtual reel system than
about most other slot subjects, particularly in our letters-to-the-editor
department. If the questions our readers send us month after
month demonstrate anything, it is that many of the stubborn
myths about how slots operate are still believed by many players.
To follow are some of the most popular myths, and the facts
to disprove them. We have no doubt that the myths will persist
after our readers peruse this article—they have, in fact,
taken on a life of their own. But we will keep trying to provide
you with the facts nonetheless.
Myth: The casino can flip a switch to make slots tighter if
too many people are winning, or if the casino is crowded.
When business is slow, they can change back to higher paybacks.
Reality: The old “payback switch” has been one of
the most persistent myths out there, but the fact is this:
There is no switch or button or mouse-click on a computer
screen used by casino slot personnel to alter the payback
programs of slot machines on the casino floor.
Here’s how it works. Slot manufacturers demonstrate their
game software in prototypes to slot department officials of
casinos. If those officials like what they see, they order
a bank of the machines, choosing from typically six or seven
available theoretical payback percentage programs offered
by the slotmaker. Those payback percentage programs are burned
into the game chip at the factory, by programmers who have
determined the theoretical return by running computer simulations
duplicating several years of game play. The chips have also
been approved by regulatory agencies, which run the same simulations
to verify the theoretical payback percentage. They are delivered
to the casino, and the game chips are locked into the machine.
Once locked in, the chips generally remain in the machine
for the life of that game. They can be replaced if the machine
is not earning, but that also requires regulatory verification,
and in practice, the casino will change out the entire game
instead of the payback percentage if the game is not making
money for the casino.
Under current regulations, changing payback percentages requires
opening slot cabinets and switching out chips, with regulators
informed ahead of time and present when the change is made
to verify the new percentage. Casinos simply do not have that
kind of manpower.
Percentages are a function of casino policy within any given
denomination—if you doubt that, look at our annual loose
slots awards in this issue. Those numbers are similar every
year, and they reflect actual payback, not theoretical. If
a game does not earn, casinos do not change the percentage.
They change the game.
Myth: If a computer programmer can determine a game’s
payback percentage, the results of any spin cannot be truly
random.
Reality: The results of any given spin are random. The programmer’s
manipulation of the payback percentage is achieved by manipulating
the universe of numbers from which that random result is chosen.
If more numbers are assigned to lower or nonpaying results,
the payback percentage will be lower. Assign more numbers
to jackpot results, and the payback percentage will be higher—not
because of the manipulation itself, but because of the laws
of probability once the universe of numbers is altered and
one of those numbers is generated at random.
Imagine the computer programmer designing a slot game that
displays the simple flip of a coin. He has assigned one number
to heads, one number to tails. Heads will come up as often
as tails over the long run, so the coin-flip game will return
as much as it takes in—he has programmed a 100 percent
payback percentage into the coin-flip game. But the actual
flip of the coin is random. It may land on heads five times
in a row, or it may land twice on tails followed by three
times on heads… but in the long run, it will even out
to a 100 percent payback percentage. The actual flip, however,
just like the actual generation of a result by the RNG, is
random.
Myth: The payback percentage is always better when wagering
the maximum.
Reality: The computer does not care how much you wager. It
is going to generate a number at random, regardless of how
much you bet. The truth is, with a straight “multiplier”
game—i.e., the jackpot amounts are exact multiples of
the single coin amount: 10 coins for one wagered; 20 for two;
30 for three—there is no inherent advantage in betting
the maximum. The payback percentage and hit frequencies are
the same, regardless of the wager.
This reality is altered only by the pay schedule or by multiple
paylines. If it’s a “buy-a-pay” schedule, you
will see on the table that some jackpots are only activated
with the second or third coin. In this case, the payback percentage
does rise with the amount wagered. But it is not the wager
itself that drives this rise; it is the pay schedule. The
actual result will be the same regardless of the wager—only
the payoff will differ.
In the case of a multiline reel or video slot, the payback
percentage will be lower if all paylines are not activated,
and will rise as each coin activates another payline. Once
all paylines are activated, it is the same as a straight multiplier—if
you bet at least enough to activate all the paylines, the
percentages and hit frequencies are constant from that point.
Myth: The slot machine pays out more (or less) when I insert
my slot club card.
Reality: Another persistent myth is the function of the slot
club card. The card reader is not connected in any way to
the slot computer’s game chip. In fact, it is in an entirely
separate location, in the top box of the machine. The reader
is there only to record your play: Coin-in and coin-out. It
transmits that information to the central slot club computer
for the sole purpose of rewarding you for loyal play. The
slot club card has absolutely no effect on the results that
will be achieved by the slot’s RNG program.
Myth: A casino employee familiar with the slot games can tell
me accurately when those slots are “due” for a jackpot.
Reality: Players often tip slot personnel to direct them to
a game that is “due” to hit, and when they do, they
are wasting their money. Each spin on a slot machine is entirely
independent of any other spin.
The slot machine’s RNG cycles through the entire set
of numbers more than a hundred times every second. Therefore,
even if a jackpot has not hit for weeks on any given machine,
it does not mean it will hit today, tomorrow or next week.
Or it could hit on the next spin. There is no way for you,
or that slot attendant, to know for sure.
This is even true in the case of a progressive, although in
the case of a progressive link that has been in one place
a long time, and an employee who has witnessed the neighborhood
in which it has hit consistently, a progressive being “due”
could be a worthwhile tip. As we’ve seen in Megabucks,
once a progressive reaches unprecedented proportions, “due”
becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because of the phenomenon
of “jackpot fever.” More people will play, increasing
the likelihood that it will hit sooner rather than later.
But still, as we said, there are no guarantees—an unprecedented
jackpot level on a progressive still does not mean it’s
going to hit today, or tomorrow. Save your tip money for the
cocktail server.
Myth: A player who sits down and hits a jackpot immediately
when a player vacates his seat “stole” that player’s
jackpot.
Reality: No one can “steal” your jackpot. As we
noted above, the RNG program is cycling through the entire
set of possible results many times each second. To believe
the next player has “stolen” your jackpot is to
assume that you would have hit the spin button at the precise
nanosecond that he did. The odds of that happening are astronomical.
You could have hit a jackpot, or you could have kept losing.
There is no way to tell—so don’t worry about it.
Myth: Casinos always place the loosest machines on the ends
of the row, so people can be seen winning.
Reality: There may be a grain of truth to this one—but
not much. It is common sense to place high-paying machines
in prominent locations, but in reality, slot managers mix
them in throughout the floor. As we noted earlier, payback
percentages are a matter of policy within any denomination,
so the quarter game on the end is going to have nearly the
same long-term payback percentage as the one in the middle.
In the short term, it’s going to have the same cycles
as any other game on the floor.
Myth: The result in second-screen bonus events is predetermined,
so if there is a choice of hidden bonuses, it doesn’t
matter which choice the player makes.
Reality: It does, in fact, matter which choice a player makes
in the so-called pick-a-tile style of bonus game. When the
bonus is initiated, the machine’s RNG selects an entire
screen of bonus amounts. After that, it’s up to the player
to pick the higher or lower amounts.
Many of the newer games in this
style verify this point by revealing all possible choices
after the player makes his selection. This feature offers
nothing for the game; manufacturers began doing it this way
because they, as us, received constant inquiries from players
as to whether their choices in the bonus round really mattered.
Myth: By counting the number of spaces and symbols on the
reels in relation to the award for each winning combination,
someone skilled in mathematics can determine the odds on a
reel-spinning game.
Reality: This was actually true in the old days, before the
invention of the virtual reel system. However, as we noted
in our introduction, the number of symbols on the reels now
means nothing. The probability of any one symbol landing on
the payline is now governed by the computer’s RNG. By
assigning many numbers to a single symbol or set of symbols,
the programmers are creating what is, in effect, a reel strip
with hundreds of symbols, rather than the 22 stops on a physical
reel. It is now a “virtual” reel. The reel strips
on a traditional slot serve the same purpose as a video screen—to
display the result chosen by the RNG. Counting the symbols
and doing math achieves absolutely nothing, other than perhaps
a headache.
Myth: Heating up the coins or cooling down the coins increases
the chance of winning.
Reality: This one is still out there, and it’s as bizarre
as it has ever been. People actually have heated coins with
a cigarette lighter or packed them in ice before inserting
them. The result? It made the coins hot or cold. It does nothing
else. Whether you like ticket-printing slots or not, at least
the new games will finally put this myth to rest.
Myth: If the reels wiggle, it means the machine is getting
ready to pay out.
Reality: See above. The reels are only there to display the
result achieved by the computer. Whether they wiggle, jump,
dance a jig or sing the national anthem, the result will be
the same—a display of the result corresponding to the
RNG’s choice of a number in the program.
There are many other myths, which we address from time to
time in our letters sections, and which persist despite logic
and factual information… pulling the handle versus pushing
the button, the casino will never let you win, slot attendants
change percentages when they work on the machine…. We
could go on and on. However we only have so much space for
a single article, and we need to leave something for our letter
files.
We will close with this one thought: Most myths are based
on the notion that the casino is out to somehow illegally
cheat the player out of his money. If you believe that, consider
this: They don’t have to. They have a license to take
your money with a 10 percent house edge on most of the games,
and we players give that edge up willingly.
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