DICE CONTROL
Controlling the Dice - IS IT FACT OR FICTION?
by Henry Tamburin
The hot topic in gambling these days is dice control and whether
it’s possible for players to influence the results of
their rolls to gain the advantage over the casino. To get
some answers about this controversial topic, I interviewed
Dan Pronovost, president of DeepNet Technologies (www.deepnettech.com)
and the developer of the revolutionary blackjack advantage
playing system, Speed Count, which Frank Scoblete and I teach.
CP: What was your opinion of dice control before you began
studying it?
DP: I was highly skeptical and reluctant to even get involved
at first. Dice control is a pariah subject in some circles
of gambling authors and experts. The game of craps tends to
attract more scam authors and “system hawkers,”
who peddle betting methods and other voodoo to “win.”
As with all casino games, there is no way to get a long-term
and sustainable advantage simply by using an uninformed betting
system, regardless of the progression or regression. But after
I saw Frank Scoblete and other experts throw the dice, it
was clear something was going on, because of dice control.
Can you describe in layman’s terms what’s involved
in controlling the dice?
It is about finely controlling the throw of the dice such
that some numbers appear more (or less) than expected in the
long run. Generally the shooter tries throwing the dice so
that they are square to the table, do not wobble, stay together
in the air and rotate together evenly. Dice controllers want
the dice to land on a face as much as possible, absorbing
most of the energy so that they barely graze the back wall
and land softly. With a good throw, the dice controller is
hoping to control undesirable pitches and rotations, providing
enough of a deviation from random to yield a positive edge.
What’s the difference between a “random” versus
“nonrandom” dice shooter?
Most shooters pick up the dice and fling them down the table.
The dice hit the back wall hard, bounce around and finally
come to rest. This is a typical random roll, and in the long
run we know mathematically how many times each number will
be rolled (e.g., the 7 will be thrown once out of every six
rolls on average). As long as the dice behave in a random
manner, the casino will always have the edge over players.
The rolls of dice controllers, however, are nonrandom in the
long run because they can influence which numbers appear on
the dice. Skilled dice controllers, because of their nonrandom
rolls, have altered the nature of craps.
Is it possible for an average player to learn how to control
the dice?
Yes, but it isn't easy. Unlike advantage play in blackjack,
dice control is a physical skill rather than a purely mental
talent. Even worse, since the influence is marginal and inconsistent,
assessing dice control properly is a challenging statistical
process. From my own experience, I estimate that six months
or more of weekly practice (five hours a week) is required
to be able to acquire sufficient skill to get a positive edge
and prove it.
How can a player prove that he or she has enough control of
the dice to have the edge over the casino?
This was a difficult problem. Players were using the seven-to-rolls
ratio (SRR), which measures the average number of tosses it
takes for one 7 to appear. However SRR is very imprecise statistically
and can require 5,000 or more rolls to say anything meaningful
about your dice control. More importantly it doesn't provide
any mathematical basis to optimize dice sets and calculate
maximal player edge. This was one of the reasons I developed
my Smart Craps software.
Can you describe your Smart Craps software and what it does?
The most useful aspect of Smart Craps is Pro Test, which is
a precise and mathematically sound way to statistically measure
your dice control skill, determine your edge and optimize
your dice sets. You can record a set of rolls and enter the
results in Smart Craps, and compare your data using Pro Test
to a truly random shooter. If there is less than one percent
chance of a random shooter replicating your results across
one or more of three statistical measures, then there is ample
evidence you are influencing the dice. Then, Smart Craps uses
that influence to determine how you bias the outcomes, and
then cycles through all the possible dice sets to determine
which set is optimum and finally computes your edge over the
casino based on which wagers you make. Smart Craps is also
a very powerful software simulator that can even let you program
your own betting systems if you want. Users can test and experiment
with virtually any craps scenario. It took my company over
one year to refine the mathematics, write the program and
complete the testing of the software.
Have you tested anyone for dice
control using your software and have they passed the Pro Test?
Yes. I tested a number of instructors at a Golden Touch Craps
course, and have since looked at data from many early users
of the software. Passing Pro Test gets easier as you add more
rolls, but several have passed in as few as 100 or 200 rolls.
This represents a very high and rare level of skill…
500 to 1,000 rolls to pass is more typical of well-trained
dice controllers.
How much of an edge can a dice controller have over the casino?
This varies depending on skill. With Smart Craps you can “tune
down” your Pro Test results before calculating an edge.
This is similar to election polls when they say the results
are within a margin of error. With this conservative “confidence
interval” reduction, I've seen positive player’s
edges for dice controllers from 0.5–15 percent with wagers
on the pass line and/or place bets on the six or eight.
Players must hit the back wall when they throw the dice. Doesn’t
this prevent shooters from controlling their throws?
It certainly makes dice control much harder! Even the best-controlled
throws will not necessarily come out “right” every
time they throw the dice, just like a skilled pitcher in baseball
doesn’t throw strikes on every throw. Controlling the
dice is an incredibly difficult skill to master, and passing
Pro Test is challenging on real tables with diamond-backed
walls. But not impossible… many Smart Craps users have
passed Pro Test.
Does the way a dice controller bets influence how much of
an edge he or she has?
Absolutely. I've seen controllers with verified skill still
playing at a loss because of poor bets and nonoptimal dice
sets. Bets in craps range from a 1 percent house edge all
the way up to 15 percent or more. Dice control is a difficult
and marginal skill at the best of times… making foolish
bets is still a good way to lose money, as with all casino
games.
What would you recommend to readers who might be interested
in learning more about dice control?
My favorite two books on dice control are Get the Edge at
Craps by Sharpshooter and The Craps Underground by Frank Scoblete.
The former is a good technical treatise on dice control, while
the latter is a very entertaining insider look at craps from
a seasoned profitable expert. Since dice control is a physical
skill, taking a hands-on course such as Golden Touch Craps
is a good investment (worked for me!). And of course I recommend
our Smart Craps software (www.SmartCraps.com) to help dice
controllers test and fine tune their skill!
Dr. Henry Tamburin is a casino gambling expert and teacher
of “smart gambling” to players everywhere. For details
on his two-day Golden Touch Blackjack course featuring Speed
Count call 866/WIN-BJ21. To order copies of his books and
tapes at a 30 percent discount, visit www.smartgaming.com.
To receive a free subscription to his Blackjack Insider Newsletter,
visit www.bjinsider.com.
For a free copy of his Casino Gambling catalog, call 888/353-3234.
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