Blackjack for Beginners
Get your feet wet at the most popular table game in the casino
with this winning strategy
by Stephen W. Custer, Ph.D.
You can play blackjack at three different skill levels. First,
just play your hunches. On a roll? Go ahead, split those tens.
Got a feeling the next card is a seven? Double down your 14.
(But we don't recommend it.)
Hey, if you get lucky, you can win a lot of money in a short
time. And it’s lots of fun. But you're much more likely
to lose a bundle in a hurry, and in the long run you’re
bound to leave a trail of money in your wake. Even if you
do get lucky, you’ll get no respect. If that seven does
hit your doubled down 14, no one will slap you on the back
and say, “Brilliant play.” No, they’ll lower
their heads and mumble, “Lucky idiot,” or worse.
Most blackjack players think that stupid plays by one player
causes them to lose. Never mind that’s there no truth
to this (See “Third Base Controls the Table” in
the March, 2005 issue), some people simply become hostile
when you make wild plays.
If you want to play your hunches, better to do it at the craps
tables. There no one cares how dumb your bets are. And craps
players are more fun than blackjack players, anyway.
Next, you can learn correct basic strategy. Quite simply,
for any situation there is an optimal play. Playing correct
basic strategy minimizes the casino’s advantages. For
most blackjack games, correct basic strategy holds the casino
advantage to right around 1% (assuming you stay away from
that single deck, 6:5 game), making it one of the best game
in the house from a statistical point of view.
If you go to a casino several times a month, playing three
or four hours of blackjack each trip, then by all means learn
the correct basic strategy for the game you’re most likely
to play. It’s a good investment. Even if you only visit
a casino occasionally, or just play a little blackjack as
a diversion from your favorite casino activity, it’s
still worth the time to at least get an understanding of how
it works.
If you are really serious about winning at blackjack, you
can learn to count cards. Counting cards is one of the few
ways to get an edge on the casino. The advantage of counting
cards is that in the long run you can make some money. But
there are definite disadvantages. First, in the short-run
you can also lose a lot of money, even more than by playing
basic strategy (See “To Count or Not To Count” in
the May, 2005 issue). Next, casinos don’t like card counters.
Not even a little. You may find yourself unwelcome at your
favorite spot. Finally, learning to count cards well enough
to win without getting the boot is not easy. It can take years
of study and practice, and you'll have to play a lot of blackjack
to make it worth the time and risk.
So what’s the beginning or occasional player to do? Risk
your money and dignity playing like a greenhorn, or spend
hours cramming for a calculus exam? I’ve developed what
I call the MGM Strategy for the occasional blackjack player.
MGM has nothing to do with the casino giant, but stands for
Minimal Gray Matter. Now, I’m not trying to insult your
intelligence here. If you are new at the blackjack table,
there will be enough going on to keep even the best brain
whirling. You’ll have to handle the chips, get the hand
signals right, and endure other players’ whines and gripes.
Admittedly, MGM is not as powerful as true basic strategy,
but your return on most games will be between 98% and 99%,
just a point off from basic strategy. With MGM, blackjack
is still one of the best percentage games in the house; in
the long run the least expensive game to play, and in the
short run, the best chance of coming out ahead. Dealers and
other players will see you as a smart player and no one will
get upset at you.
Most importantly, even if you’ve never played the game
you can learn this strategy in a few minutes. You’ll
know it by the time you’ve finished this article. If
that’s too much, do what you did with the conjugation
of verbs for your Latin exam—write it on your sleeve.
The MGM Strategy
Hit or Stand:
Rule 1: If your total is 11 or less (counting an ace as one),
take a card.
How to Remember: If it won’t break, hit it.
Exceptions: Stand with ace-7=18, ace-8=19, ace-9=20; and of
course ace-10, which is blackjack.
How to Remember: Anything 18 or over is a good hand. Keep
it.
The rest of the Hit/Stand plays depend on the dealer’s
up card. Rather than worry about every possible card the dealer
may have, we’ll put the dealer’s up card into one
of two classes. Anything between a 2 and a 6 (inclusive) is
a weak hand for the dealer. Seven through ace is a strong
hand.
Against the dealer’s weak hand:
Rule 2: Don’t hit anything 12 or over.
How to Remember: Don’t chance breaking when the dealer
has a weak hand. Give the dealer a chance to break.
Against the dealer’s strong
hand:
Rule 3: Hit until you have 17 or better.
How to Remember: The dealer has a strong hand, I have to take
some chances.
Doubling Down:
Rule 4: Always double down with 11.
How to Remember: I have a strong hand, and should bet as much
as I can.
Rule 5: Double down with 10, unless the dealer has 10 or an
ace.
How to Remember: I have a better hand than the dealer, and
should bet as much as I can.
Rule 6: Double down with nine against dealer’s weak hands
(two through six).
How to Remember: I have a better hand than the dealer, and
should bet as much as I can.
Splitting Pairs:
Rule 7: Always split aces and eights. Don’t split any
other pair.
How to Remember: For aces, trading one bad hand for two great
hands. For eights, trading one terrible hand for two not-so-bad
hands.
Insurance and Even Money:
Rule 8: Don’t take insurance or even money on blackjacks.
How to Remember: It’s a sucker play.
That’s it.
Good luck, relax and have some fun.
Stephen Custer is an expert in statistics and probability
theory and has taught at several universities. He currently
lives in Las Vegas where he applies these skills at the blackjack
and poker tables. He is the author of a new book, "21
a journey: Memoirs of a Professional Gambler", a chronicle
of his yearlong journey across America playing blackjack.
For more information, or to contact the author, visit www.21ajourney.com.
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