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Keno
Everyone knows keno's reputation, and it's well justified; the average bite is in the 30 percent range. That's pretty bad, but some keno returns are far worse. Keno is a classic example of a game where special tickets often cost more to play. A few years ago a major Las Vegas Strip casino advertised a special "SuperEight" ticket with a giant $100,000 payoff. The ticket had a whopping 56.5 percent house advantage. Nickel video keno also qualifies as a bad bet, with an average casino advantage of about 15 percent.
Big Six
Another game with a bad reputation is the big six. Of the six bets you can make on this game, every one of them is bad. Wheels vary slightly, but for the most common configuration, the casino edge is as follows: 11.1 percent on the $1 spot, 16.6 percent on the $2, 22.2 percent on the $5, 18.5 percent on the $10, 22.2 percent on the $20, and 24 percent on either joker. Bad bets. Bad game.
Craps
Here's a funny truth: The more sophisticated a crap player seems to be, the more bad bets he's probably making. That's because he's usually drifting into that netherland in the center of the table where the "propositions" can be found. The house has an 11.1 percent edge on the following prop bets: 3, 11, all hop bets except hardways, hard 4 or 10, and any craps. It has a 13.9 percent edge on 2, 12 and all hardway hops, and a 16.7 percent edge on any 7. Combining these bad bets into wagers that go by the names of horn, world, C-and-E, and any craps results in new, but equally bad, bad bets.
Baccarat
There are only three possible bets on a baccarat or mini-baccarat table, and one of them--the tie bet--is bad. It carries a 14.4 percent casino edge, roughly 11 times worse than the bets on bank and player.
Blackjack
It's almost impossible to make a bad bet in this game. The worst a basic strategy player can do is stumble onto one of the gimmick games like Experto (naturals pay even money) or an unpalatable variation of double exposure. Even in these situations, the casino advantage is less than 3 percent. An endless stream of side bets have been introduced for incorporation with the basic game--Royal Match, blackjack field, over/under, etc. But most of those fall below our 10 percent requirement. The "over" portion of the over/under side bet has a greater than 10 percent casino advantage, and I've seen a few games offering a chance at big progressive payoffs for drawing certain hard-to-get combinations that had casino advantages above 10 percent. But that's about it, except for one very bad blackjack bet that's almost guaranteed to shock you: Insurance.
Most players consider it prudent to take insurance on their good hands: naturals and 20s. If you've ever read a decent book on blackjack basic strategy, you know that insurance is never recommended. Many players argue this, but unless you're counting cards and can detect a deck composition that calls for a departure from basic strategy, taking insurance is always at least marginally wrong. But insuring good hands is spectacularly wrong. That's because some of the cards the dealer needs to complete his blackjack are already out of the deck and in your hand. If you're holding a 20 that's composed of two Tens, insuring that hand in a single-deck game affords the house a whopping 14.3 percent edge. It's unconscionable to give up that much in this best of gambling games. It's also bad to insure two Tens when playing double deck, where it costs you 10.9 percent. The percentage drops below 10 percent for four decks or more, but you still shouldn't do it.
Slots and Video Poker
Surprise. By our definition, most of the electronic games don't qualify as bad. (Don't be misled, though. On a per-hour basis, these games are among the worst.) You will encounter bad bets here, but mostly at the nickel level or in out-of-the way gambling venues (convenience stores) and destinations (Catfish Bend, Iowa). Check Casino Player's Slot Charts and you'll see what I mean.
Sports Betting
Betting $11 to win $10 on your favorite football team is one of the best bang-for-your-buck gambles you can find. But watch out for some of the other bets in the books. I asked sports betting expert Andy Iskoe of Logical Approach (his company specializes in the handicapping, research, and analysis of sports, 702/898-9802) to identify a bad bet in the sports book. He came up with two: parlay cards (and teasers) and futures.
"The parlay cards are certainly bad, with house advantages (against the average player) that approximate the edge in keno. The worst cards are the ties-lose versions, which are everywhere during big events like the Super Bowl. Why do you think they can afford to give away T-shirts for $20 parlay card bets? Also, the more teams or propositions you parlay, the worse the cards get, some of them holding 35 percent-50 percent or more.
"Futures are mathematically bad, since the casinos usually cook about a 15 percent-25 percent edge into them. Then they hold your money over a long period of time, which results in a loss of earning power. Still, I hesitate to criticize futures too hard, since a small wager can provide months of action and entertainment. Futures on longshots are especially poor, though, since the true odds against the bad teams often far exceed the payoffs attached to them."
Race Betting
Sorry horse bettors, betting a bob on the ponies will cost you plenty. Nevada's racebooks are virtually all parimutuel now, which means you'll fade the same 18 percent-22 percent take-out that you do at the track. And it can get worse, warns race-wagering specialist Barry Meadow (publisher of Meadow's Racing Monthly, 714-635-8725).
"The take-out on the straight bets is bad enough, and you figure to take a few more percentage points the worst of it when you bet the exotics such as the pick-six. In fact, you face a double whammy on the pick-six. The take-out is huge, and you have almost no chance of hitting it anyway [due to the long odds]."
Meadow echoes Iskoe's reservations about racebook futures. "Big casino edge, your money's tied up, and in horse racing you don't get your bet back if your horse doesn't run."
Other Games
Interestingly, most of the new games you'll encounter aren't too bad, as long as you stick to the basic bets. New game developers have no choice, since history has shown that players can feel an edge that's too high, which causes them to avoid it. The casino edge on the new game of War, for example, comes in at well under 5 percent on the basic bets. But the casinos made certain to throw in one zinger, the longshot tie, which runs at about 18 percent for the house. Notice again that there's a tip-off in the high (10-1) payoff.
Some bad games have survived on their novelty value. Two that have always fascinated me are Derby and Flip-It. The edge on the mechanical horse-race game, Derby, has been calculated by Stanford Wong at about 12 percent. And Flip-It, the weird game where mechanical paddles push quarters over a ledge and into your tray, has a casino edge of about 18 percent.
The Outside World
As you can see, casinos offer some real bad bets. But in the casino environment, you always have the option of switching to better gambling alternatives. That's usually not the case when it comes to gambling outside of established casino areas. It's no secret that one of the worst bets you can possibly make is on your own state lottery (50 percent edge or more). And how about charity Las Vegas nights, where dealers take pushes on blackjack games and bingo bazaars, where huge percentages are retained from the buy-ins. And if you're under the impression that carnivals and arcades provide innocent amusement, flip to Max Rubin's column "The Ropes" in this issue.
The worst bet of all? It'll probably be the one that sounds the best. You'll have it posed to you by someone in a bar, and it will be too good to pass up. Trust me on this one, the edge you face on that bet will usually be 100 percent. Heed the classic warning of Damon Runyon (from "The Idyll of Miss Sarah Brown"): "Son, no matter how far you travel, or how smart you get, always remember this: Some day, somewhere, a guy is going to come to you and show you a nice brand-new deck of cards on which the seal has never been broken, and this guy is going to offer to bet you that the jack of spades will jump out of this deck and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not bet him, for as sure as you do, you are ing to get an ear full of cider."
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