by Frank Scoblete

This is the age of lists. The top 100 movies of all time, the top 100 books of the 20th Century, the top 100 colleges for academic excellence (or bargains or partying). In the interest of keeping up with the list makers, as well as the (Dow) Joneses, I’ve listed the top 50 questions I’m asked whenever I give talks about casino gambling. All value judgments are mine, not necessarily those of the editors of Casino Player, so if I say something is the best thing, it’s just my not-so-humble opinion.

1. Can a person really beat the casinos?

Yes, a person can really beat the casinos—if that person plays the right games the right ways. Unfortunately, most people won't be that person, because most people play games that give the casino the edge. You can, with expert play, beat the following games: blackjack, video poker and regular poker. What I’m saying here is that you can actually beat the "math" of the game and get the edge.

2. How much money should you bring to a casino?

Always bring enough money to last you for the amount of time you want to play. As a rule of thumb, for every session of blackjack, have at least 40 times your bet. If you are a $5 bettor then have $200. For craps, always have 10 times your bet spread. If you are up on three numbers at the height of your betting, then have 10 times the amount of the three combined wagers. In roulette and all other games, use the blackjack formula. Bring enough money to play all the sessions you plan to play. The $5 blackjack bettor who wants to play six sessions in two days should bring $1,200. Never use a win—or any leftover money—from one session in another session. Put it away. This will almost guarantee that you will go home with some money. Nothing feels worse than getting wiped out.

3. Is there such a thing as luck?

Yes. There's good luck and bad luck. Good luck is defined as winning. Bad luck is defined as losing. Mathematicians don't believe in good or bad luck, but simply call all events, streaks, circumstances (and so on) that are involved with chance "fluctuations in probability."

4. How important are comps?

They are not important and they are very important. If you can con the casinos into giving you more comps than your play deserves, then you are getting value for your time. If you merely get the comps that are commensurate with your play, then you are getting what everyone else would get, which is also fine—take what they give you. Always use your player's card to get what the casinos are giving, but never give the casinos more than what you can afford to give, just to get a comp. Some people equate getting comped with their self-worth, as in "The casinos gave me a free room, a free gourmet meal, free show tickets and all the hosts called me 'Sir!' and I only had to bet $200 per hand for four hours to get it." That's silly, stupid and costly if you can't afford to bet $200 per hand. Play at the level that gives you the manageable thrill you are looking for, but not for one penny more. The comps will come, and they will have absolutely nothing to do with your self worth.

5. Which games make the most money for the casinos?

The most overall money is made from slots, followed by blackjack, with craps and roulette right behind. More people play those games than any others. However, there is another way to figure what the casinos make and that is on a per game, per $100 bet ratio. This is called the win rate. Below are the most recent "real-world" win rates for various games in both Atlantic City and Las Vegas. My guess is that other gambling jurisdictions such as Mississippi and Illinois are probably consistent with these results as well. However, these jurisdictions do not release their figures based on individual games. The percent means that for every $100 bet, the casino keeps that percentage. Remember that the casino win rate is really the player loss rate! Hold your breath.

7. What games have the highest win percentage for players?

If you lay against the Four or 10 in craps, you have a 66 percent win ratio; laying the Five or Nine has a 60 percent win rate. Of course, you have to put up more money than the bet is worth, so you will still lose even with this win rate. In baccarat, the bank wins about 50.5 percent of the time if you exclude ties. So you will actually win more than half your bets if you play this proposition exclusively at baccarat (that's why the casino takes a commission from the winning bets). The pass line at craps has a 49.3 percent player win ratio. Blackjack has around a 48 percent win rate if we exclude ties. The even money bets at roulette (red/black, odd/even, high/low) have a 47.4 percent player win ratio.

8. How much of a [mathematical] edge can you get on these games?

In blackjack, a good card counter playing games with good penetration and good rules can get between a 0.5 percent and a 1.5 percent edge. I'd guess most card counters are playing with a 1 percent edge. Good single-deck players are probably closer to 1.5 percent, while good shoe players are probably closer to 0.5 percent. The card counter’s advantage depends on how much money he can get on the table when the game favors him. On select full-pay or more-than-full pay video poker machines, you can probably play even with the house, graduating up to about a 2 percent edge on some machines. On regular poker, it’s much harder to estimate an advantage, but some people can (and do) make a living playing poker.

9. How can a player have a mathematical edge and still lose?

Easy. Let's flip a coin. I am going to give you an approximately 1 percent edge over the casino—the same kind of edge that most blackjack card counters might have. You get to call the flip. Every time you win, you will be paid one dollar and two cents. Every time you lose, you will give up one dollar. The math shows us plainly that you will theoretically win in the long run because flipping a coin is a 50-50 proposition, and you're getting paid more for a win than you are losing for a loss. So in 200 flips, you would theoretically win 100 and lose 100, and come out ahead by 200 pennies. Now, start flipping a real coin and keep track of it on paper. Do it right now and then come back and read the rest of this. Surprised aren't you? Some of you went on a winning streak that made you a nice chunk of change, but some of you started to lose, and by the time you got tired of flipping that coin and keeping track of your wins and losses, you were down a pretty penny.

10. But if I played long enough I would have to win, right?

Yes, if you didn't go broke first. Let’s flip a coin again with the same stipulations as above—but this time, you only have four dollars to play with and your opponent has, oh, $10,000. Don't bother going off and doing the experiment—you are going to get wiped out even with your 1 percent edge. Why? Because your bankroll can't sustain the fluctuations of probability inherent in a gambling game. That's a fancy way of saying you don't have enough money to weather the bad streaks that will inevitably come your way. You have the edge, but that edge is only mathematical. In the real world, the guy with the $10,000 against your four dollars has the real edge.

11. Can slot machines be beaten?

Of course! If you buy the right hammer and plant one or two whacks firmly on the belly glass, you should be able to get right to the money. A good drill would help as well. This is a great strategy for people who can’t wait to go to jail.

12. So it doesn't really matter which machines I play?

Actually, it does matter which machines you play. The fact that a machine can't be beaten doesn't mean they’re all the same. There are good and bad machines to play, just as there are good and bad ways to play them. But the degree to which you might call something "good" and "bad" is very subjective.

13. Which machines should I play?

You have to judge your temperament. If you want to go for the big score such as Megabucks and you don't mind bucking odds of around 30,000,000-to-1, then be my guest. If you exclusively play progressives every time you go to a casino, you will lose almost every time because they keep anywhere from 10 to 15 percent of the money put in them.

14. But someone wins the progressives, right?

15. Are there really loose and tight machines in a casino?

Absolutely. The casinos have turned slot payouts into a science.

16. Where are they?

No one knows where every loose or tight machine is in every casino, but as a general rule of thumb, the areas where slot players are encouraged to play will be loose, and the areas where solitary players might put in a few coins before going to dinner or a show will be tight.

17. What does hit frequency mean on a slot machine?

The hit frequency is how many times the player can expect to receive some kind of payout from the machine. Most slot machines have hit frequencies around the 15 percent mark. That means about one in six or seven spins will result in the player getting money back. Note that I said "player getting money back," not "winning money." It is theoretically possible to have a 100 percent hit frequency with a machine that takes all your money. Just program it to constantly return one or two coins on a three-coin bet, or one to four coins on a five-coin bet. You would have a 100 percent hit frequency and lose every time.

18. Do slot machines have cycles?

No. When you hear casino personnel talk about cycles, what you are actually dealing with is the theoretical number of spins for all the possible combinations to come up based on the program involved. In the actual playing of the machines, everything is randomly selected based on the RNG—the random number generator. There are streaks, but these streaks are not predictable. So there are "theoretical" cycles and "real" streaks—neither of which can help the player win.

19. Is there any way to tell if a slot machine is going to hit?

Yes, if you know that you are about to pop it with a hammer; no, if you are playing it legitimately.

20. Is it true that some progressive video poker and slot machines are sometimes favorable for players?

Yes, but don't get too excited. When certain progressive jackpots are at certain levels, players have a mathematical advantage because, when the payout comes, the totality of the money going out, as opposed to coming in, will be greater. Unfortunately, only one player actually wins the progressive and the others are left holding a (more-than-likely) losing hand. The only way it becomes a positive expectation for all the players playing is if they have agreed beforehand to split the pot.

21. What are the odds of getting a royal flush in video poker?

Around 40,000 to one.