Denver Broncos

A strong argument can be made that the '98 Broncos is a better team than the Super Bowl champion '97 team was. And even though quarterback John Elway has suffered through an injury-plagued season, these Broncos could conceivably win it all with backup Bubby Brister at the helm, thanks mostly to sure league MVP running back Terrell Davis. At the very least, the Broncos are a virtual lock to return to the Super Bowl, and with home field throughout the playoffs, they should be an attractive play throughout the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings

Hey, if the four-time Super Bowl loser Bronco team can get the monkey off its back, then there is hope for the Vikes, who have lost in the big game four times themselves. Obviously one of the most talented offensive teams in the league, the Vikings have a chance this year because there is no dominant defense among the playoff contending teams and, for the first time in a long time, a team with a suspect defense has a legitimate chance to win it all simply by outscoring opponents. And the Vikings can certainly do that. If the Vikings get home field advantage throughout the conference playoffs and are able to keep running back Robert Smith healthy, they'll go to the Super Bowl and they'll look good doing it. Also, because of their suspect defense, betting them and the over should be an attractive proposition throughout the playoffs.

Green Bay Packers

A reluctant choice here, but it's not wise to count three-time MVP Brett Favre out. When betting the Packers this post-season, you'll need to examine two things. The first is the health of running back Dorsey Levens, who missed most of the season with a broken leg but is expected to be ready for the playoffs. If he's even a shadow of his '97 self, the Packer offense immediately goes from good to potentially dominating. The second thing to look for is the play of their secondary that, through 11 regular season games, has been suspect, giving up 230 yards a game through the air. Like the Vikings, they should put up a lot of points in the playoffs.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are yet another team that is potent offensively but ordinary on defense, specifically pass defense. The Jaguars should be able to steam-roll through the playoffs until they go to Denver for the AFC conference championship. And even though they shocked the Broncos by winning there in '96, they'll be hard-pressed to do it again considering they've lost their last two games there by substantial margins. Still, with a staunch run defense coupled with the running of rookie sensation Fred Taylor and the explosive passing offense led by quarterback Mark Brunell, the Jaguars should post at least one big win in the playoffs.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are yet another team with a great offense but a weakened defense from a year ago. As long as they are not playing the Green Bay Packers (the Packers have beaten them handily in the playoffs in each of the last three years, and they were favored by three in Green Bay earlier this season and lost by twelve), the 49ers should be good for at least one playoff game win at home. Don't expect these guys to be playing on the last day of January, though.

The Trends

• Of the 32 Super Bowl-winning teams, only three have not covered the spread.
  
• Up until Denver's Super Bowl win last year, the NFC had won thirteen consecutive Super Bowls, covering at a 10-2-1 rate.
  
• There have been seven Super Bowls played in Miami (the site of this year's game). The AFC has a 4-3 record straight up but is 5-2 against the spread.
  
• The largest point spread in Super Bowl history was nineteen in 1995. That year, the favored 49ers covered the spread against the San Diego Chargers. That game was in Miami.
  
• Over the last ten years, the average combined score of the two Super Bowl teams has been 54 points.
  
• Over the last ten years, the average margin of victory for the Super Bowl winning team has been sixteen points.
  
• In Super Bowl games in which the favorite team is favored by ten or more, the favorite is 7-4-1.
  
• In Super Bowl games in which the favorite team is favored by fewer than ten points, the favorite is just 11-8 against the spread.

Spread Stuff

Here are the top Super Bowl contending team's records against the spread overall and on grass (the surface of this year's game) against the spread. These records are through Week Eleven of the NFL season:

Denver Broncos: 7-3 (overall), 7-1 (on grass)

Minnesota Vikings: 6-4 (overall), 1-2 (on grass)

Green Bay Packers: 6-3-1 (overall), 4-1-1 (on grass)

Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-4 (overall), 5-3 (on grass)

San Francisco 49ers: 4-6 (overall), 2-4 (on grass)

Potential Super Bowl Match-ups

Denver vs. Minnesota
Last Meeting: The Broncos defeated the Vikings in Minnesota in '96, 21-17. Minnesota covered the spread (Denver minus 5) and the game went under the over/under of 42.

Denver vs. Green Bay
Last Meeting: The Broncos beat Green Bay 31-24 and covered the spread (Green Bay plus 11) in Super Bowl XXXII last year. The game went over the over/under number of 49.

Denver vs. San Francisco
Last Meeting: The 49ers beat Denver in San Francisco 34-17 in '97. Denver was favored by three points and the game went over the over/under number of 45.

Minnesota vs. Jacksonville
Last Meeting: These teams have never played each other as of this writing, but will have met (December 19th in Minnesota) by the time you read this.

Green Bay vs. Jacksonville
Last Meeting: The Packers defeated the Jaguars 24-14 in '95 but Jacksonville covered the spread (Green Bay plus 11). The game went over the over/under number of 37.

San Francisco vs. Jacksonville
Last Meeting: These teams have never met during the regular season.