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Dumb & Dumber
The surprisingly
high cost of Îdumb' blackjack plays
By Henry Tamburin
Let's start with a multiple-choice question. The annual cost to a typical $10 blackjack bettor who always makes the insurance bet is:
a. $55
b. $250
c. $420
Believe it or not, the typical $10 blackjack bettor who visits a casino two to three times per month will donate a whopping $420 over the course of a year to the casino coffers by making this dumb play. Throw in a few more dumb plays and multiply the number by the masses of unskilled blackjack players out there, and it's not hard to figure out why blackjack is still a major money-maker for the casinos.
A dumb play is when a blackjack player deviates from the mathematically-derived basic blackjack playing strategy (excluding card counting). Every time a player deviates, it costs money. The overall cost is a function of the number of times you are dealt a particular hand, and the penalty (or percentage of money lost) associated with making the dumb play. By multiplying the frequency times the penalty, you arrive at the cost.
Several blackjack theoreticians (Braun, Wong, Griffin, Schlesinger) have published the cost of deviating from basic strategy on different hands. I double checked their results and decided to use the data reported by blackjack expert Don Schlesinger in his excellent book, "Blackjack Attack," for analysis in this article. Schlesinger's data was calculated for a four-deck game, which is good enough for the points I want to make.
What are the typical dumb plays made by blackjack players? Well, "always making the insurance bet" ranks right up there as one of the dumbest plays. In order to create a list of the other common dumb plays, I used my own observations from my 27 year blackjack playing career, plus input from my casino gambling friends, business associates, and spouse. I also perused several blackjack books where authors mentioned the typical "wrong plays" made by blackjack players. When I put it all together into one list, it boiled down to the 15 dumb plays listed in Table 1.
Many players argue with me that they use basic playing strategy "most of the time," and the few times they deviate "won't make that much of a difference." I say that depending upon the play, it can and will make a difference.
To prove my point I used the cost information in Table 8.3 of Schlesinger's "Blackjack Attack," plus the assumptions below for a typical player to calculate what each of the common dumb plays cost a player on an annual basis.
Assumptions:
1) $10 average bet per hand
2) 100 hands per hour
3) 2 -3 casino visits per month, totaling 12 hours of playing time
4) 150 hours (or 15,000 hands) per year
Table 1 ranks the annual costs for each dumb play. The most expensive mistake is to always take insurance when the dealer offers it. You donate $419 to the casino bottom line if you consistently do this.
TABLE 1
ANNUAL COSTS FOR MAKING DUMB PLAYS
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The cost to a typical $10 blackjack player who always makes the five most expensive dumb plays is a whopping $858 per year. Ouch! If a green chip player makes the same dumb plays, his donation to the casinos is 2.5 times as much, or a whopping $2,145. A high rolling, black chip action player who plays mostly heads-up against the dealer (150 instead of 100 hands per hour) will donate easily $10,000, and probably more per year by making these dumb playing mistakes. It's no wonder that casinos cater to these types of players for their business.
The reason that some plays cost more than others is because the most expensive dumb plays occur more frequently and have the highest percentage penalty for making the second best play. Table 2 summarizes the hands that occur most frequently. Likewise, the table contains the hands that have the highest percent penalty when you deviate from the basic playing strategy. The more frequent a hand occurs and the greater the percent penalty, then the more it will cost a player in the long run.
For example, doubling vs. hitting on 9 vs. 2 or on 11 vs. Ace are not relatively costly plays (they cost the player only $10 per year combined). The reason? These plays do not occur very often÷their frequency is low. Likewise, soft hands and pairs do not occur very frequently, which is why these hands appear toward the bottom of the ranking of costs.
On the other hand, consistently passing up the opportunity to double on 11 against a 10 is an expensive play because it occurs frequently and the penalty is high. Additionally, how you play the frequently occurring hard 16 hand has a big impact on your annual costs. Players who hit hard 16 when the dealer shows a 2 or stand on a dealer's 7, 9 or 10 are looking at a $355 annual donation. And check out the hard 12 against a dealer's 2 or 3 play. Lot's of players hate to hit because they are afraid to bust. It will cost you $63 a year for being a chicken and standing.
If you're a green chip player, multiply the annual costs in Table 1 by 2.5 to get a rough idea of what you are donating for your dumb plays. If you are a black chip player, multiply the costs by 10. At these betting levels, mistakes can be awfully expensive.
TABLE 2
MOST FREQUENT HANDS & HIGHEST
PENALTY "DUMB" PLAYS
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How about a $10 blackjack bettor who never hits a stiff hand when the dealer shows a 7 to Ace? Care to guess what it costs this player over a year for making this dumb play? About $5,000. How about the player who always hits a stiff hand when the dealer shows a small upcard? Yes, I know you'd like to strangle them, but take solace in the fact that they are donating about $2,800 per year to the casinos for making this dumb play.
If you are a card counter, listen up. Sometimes it's to your advantage to make a "dumb" play on purpose, to camouflage your playing skills from casino bosses who get leery when they suspect a player is counting. However, as you see from Table 1, some dumb plays are more costly than others. If you make too many costly plays, you can easily wipe out your profit potential from counting. The solution is to only make a "common" dumb play with a low cost when you have a small bet on the layout. Some camouflage plays that fit these criteria include insuring a blackjack hand (everyone will tell you it's a sure bet in blackjack), standing on soft 18 against the dealer's 9, 10 or Ace, and hitting 9 vs. 2. For more information on camouflage betting, I strongly encourage you to read Ian Anderson's latest book, "Burning The Tables in Las Vegas."
If you're the type of blackjack player who doesn't want to be bothered learning basic strategy or figures a few mistakes now and then isn't going to cost a lot, I hoped I've given you a wake up call. Consistently making these mistakes is costly, so the choice is yours. If you want to continue to donate your money to the casinos, then continue making dump plays. If you'd prefer to stop donating, then learn basic playing strategy and stop making those dumb mistakes. It's that simple.
Henry Tamburin is the author of 6 best-selling casino gambling books including his latest, "Henry Tamburin on Casino Gambling÷The Best of The Best." For a free catalog call toll free 1-888-353-3234 or visit Tamburin's web site at http://www.smartgaming.com.
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