Hard 16 vs. Dealer 10 Upcard
Win Lose
Lose
Loss per $100 bet
Hitting
23.4%
76.6%
$53.20
Standing
22.8%
77.25%
$54.40
Surrender
(automatically lose 50% of each bet) $50.00
Many blackjack theoreticians, myself included, have determined which player hand and dealer upcard combination has a greater than negative 50 percent expectation (i.e. you will lose, on average, more than 50 percent of the wager). When this occurs, surrender is your best option. This information leads to the following simplified basic playing strategy for surrender in multiple deck games:
- Surrender hard 16 (but not 8.8) against dealer 9, 10 or Ace upcard
- Surrender hard 15 against dealer 10 upcard.
- Do not surrender hard 12, 13, and 14 hands
- Never surrender soft hands
A more detailed playing strategy for surrender—including the correct surrender plays for single- and multiple-deck games with the dealer hitting and standing on soft 17—is summarized in Table 1. —From Stanford Wong's Current Blackjack News, July 1999.
The surrender rule has these characteristics:
1. Surrender is considerably more important in multiple-deck games than it is in single-deck games. The player advantage for surrender in single-deck games is approximately +0.02 percent vs. +0.07 percent for multiple deck games. Most of the advantage comes from surrendering hard 16 against the dealer 10 upcard.
2. If the dealer hits soft 17, the surrender rule becomes even more valuable. That's because the worse the game becomes for the player, the less chance the player has of winning the stiff 15 and 16 hands. Therefore, surrender becomes a more viable option.
3. Using surrender properly will stabilize your bankroll. You'll experience less swings in your bankroll when you surrender than you will if you play the hand to completion.
4. For card counters, surrender is more likely to be the correct play for 15 and 16 hands when the remaining cards to be dealt are rich in high cards (high count situation). By surrendering, counters cut down on their losses when they are more likely to have a large bet on the table. The net effect is that counters will be able to preserve more of their profits compared to when surrender is not available.
CASINOS THAT CURRENTLY OFFER LATE SURRENDER
(Number in parentheses indicate number of decks)
CONNECTICUT
Ledyard
Foxwoods (6,8)
Uncasville
Mohegan Sun (6,8)
FLORIDA (cruise ships)
Miami
Monte Carlo, Pompano Beach (2,6)
SaeScape, Ft. Lauderdale (6)
SunCruz, Hollywood (6,8)
IOWA
Davenport
Jumer's Rock Island (6)
LOUISIANA
Shreveport
Harrah's (6)
MICHIGAN
Saint Ignace
Kewadin, Hessel (2,6)
Kewadin Shores (2,6)
Salt Sainte Maria
Kewadin (2,6)
MISSISSIPPI
Gulfport/Biloxi
Beau Rivage (6)
Copa (1,2,6)
Vicksburg
Rainbow (6)
NEVADA
Las Vegas
Bally (6)
Bellagio (6)
Boardwalk (6)
Caesars Palace (6)
Desert Inn (6)
Flamingo Hilton (6)
Golden Nugget (6)
Cont. next row.
Harrah's (6)
Las Vegas Club (6)
Las Vegas Hilton (2,6)
Longhorn (6)
Luxor (6)
Mandalay Bay (6)
MGM Grand (4,6,8)
Mirage (6)
Monte Carlo (6,8)
New Frontier (6)
New York New York (6)
Rio (6)
Treasure Island (6)
Tropicana (6)
Venetian (6)
Laughlin
Avi (2,6)
Reno
Alamo (1)
South Tahoe
Caesars (6)
NEW JERSEY
Atlantic City
Claridge (4,6,8)
NEW MEXICO
Albuquerque
Isleta (2,4,6)
Sandia (4)
Santa Ana Star (2,6)
SOUTH DAKOTA
Watertown
Dakota Sioux (1,4)
WASHINGTON
Belligham
Skagit Valley (6)
WISCONSIN
Crandon
Mote Lake Regency (2,4)
Green Bay
Oneida (5,6)
Hayward
Lac Courte Oreilles (4,6)
5. Most casinos that offer surrender don't advertise it, so don't be afraid to ask the floor person or dealer if it's available.
6. Don't be surprised if your fellow players look at you like you are some kind of nut when you surrender. Most novice players, and even some casino supervisors, think giving up half of your bet and throwing in the hand is a stupid play. Pay no attention to their stares or comments—you'll be making the right play and saving more of your profits in the long run.
7. Overall, casinos don't win less money when they offer surrender at their blackjack tables. The reason is that the vast majority of players misuse the option, resulting in higher losses for them and greater profits for the casino.
8. Surrender should always be the very first option that players consider when they play out their hand. Once a decision is made not to surrender the hand, the other playing options (pair splitting, doubling, hitting and standing) come into play.
It is definitely worth your while to learn when to surrender and to always use the surrender strategy when it's offered. Over the long haul, you'll be decreasing your losses and keeping more of your profits. And isn’t that the goal of every blackjack player?
Henry Tamburin is one of America's most popular and knowledgeable gaming writers and author of 6 best-selling books, including Blackjack: Take The Money & Run. For more of Tamburin's winning advice for casino players, visit his web site or call 1-888-353-3234 for a copy of his gaming catalog.
